The Housing and Development Board (HDB) has released their quarterly data on 24th January 2025, and results have shown a 2.6% increase in HDB resale prices in 4Q2024. This marks the 19th consecutive quarter of price growth in the resale market. The overall cumulative increase for the whole of 2024 was 9.7%, which is almost double the 4.9% increase that was recorded in 2023 on a yearly basis.
According to Mohan Sandrasegeran, the Head of Research & Data Analytics at SRI, the strong growth in resale prices throughout 2024 was largely due to the limited supply of flats that reached their Minimum Occupation Period (MOP) during the year. Sandrasegeran also noted that buyers showed a high interest in newer and larger flat types, particularly five-room and executive units, which cater to growing family needs.
Out of all the flat types in the HDB resale market, five-room flats recorded the highest price growth, with an average resale price increase of 2.2% to $754,097 in 4Q2024. Meanwhile, the resale prices of four-room flats also saw a significant increase of 2.2% to $652,544 in the same quarter. The Central Area experienced the highest increase in prices, growing 25.6% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q), followed by Toa Payoh (12.1%), Tampines (6.9%), Bishan (6.7%), and Bedok (6.1%).
It was also reported that about 285 HDB resale flats were sold for $1 million or more in the last quarter of 2024, bringing the total number of million-dollar HDB resale transactions to 1,035 for the whole year. Majority of these transactions occurred in mature estates, with the Kallang/Whampoa estate seeing the highest number of million-dollar flats sold at 156 units, followed by Toa Payoh (144 units), and Bukit Merah (135 units).
However, the overall resale transaction volume for 4Q2024 fell by 21.1% q-o-q, from 8,142 units sold in 3Q2024 to 6,424 units sold in 4Q2024. According to Lee Sze Teck, the Senior Director of Data Analytics at Huttons Asia, this was due to seasonal factors such as the year-end holiday and festive season. He also mentioned that the lower interest rate environment may have encouraged some buyers to move towards the private residential market or Executive Condominium (EC) market.
Additionally, some buyers may have opted to ballot for a flat in the latest Build-to-Order (BTO) sales exercise, which took place in October 2024. This BTO sales exercise saw a record 15 projects comprising 8,573 flats under the new location-based classification framework. For the first time, singles were also allowed to buy two-room flexi BTO flats in all locations.
In 2024, the overall resale transaction volume increased by 8.4% year-on-year (y-o-y), from 26,735 units sold in 2023 to 28,986 units sold in 2024. This marks the largest number of resale transactions since 2021, when 31,017 flats were sold. Based on transaction data compiled by Huttons Asia, the top five most popular HDB towns among buyers in 2024 were Sengkang, Woodlands, Punggol, Tampines, and Yishun, which together accounted for around 35.9% of all HDB resales in 2024.
Moving forward to 2025, approximately 6,976 flats are expected to reach the end of their MOP, which is a 41.6% decrease from the 11,952 flats in 2024. Sandrasegeran attributes this decrease to the relatively fewer BTO flats completed in 2020 during the Covid-19 pandemic. HDB has since announced plans to launch over 25,000 new flats across three BTO sales exercises in 2025, with 19,600 BTO flats and more than 5,500 flats under the Sale of Balance Flats (SBF) exercise.
The next SBF exercise will take place concurrently with the upcoming BTO sales exercise in February, where 5,000 BTO flats in Kallang/Whampoa, Queenstown, Woodlands, and Yishun will be offered. This will be the largest SBF exercise held by HDB since November 2020, where 5,220 units were made available and approximately 4 in 10 of the 5,500 SBF flats offered next month are already completed.
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Sandrasegeran believes that the substantial ramp-up in public housing supply is to address the growing demand for housing. He also mentioned that SBF flats are particularly appealing to home seekers who prefer ready-to-move-in properties with a shorter waiting time compared to the typical BTO process. Furthermore, about 3,800 units out of the 19,600 BTO flats planned for launch in 2025 will be designated as Shorter Waiting Time (SWT) flats, offering wait times of less than three years.
Looking ahead, Sandrasegeran forecasts resale prices in the HDB market for 2025 to increase by 3.5% to 5.5%, with a resale transaction volume ranging between 26,000 to 27,000. However, Lee projects a more optimistic price increase of between 5% to 8% throughout the year.…