There is positive news for the global real estate market as it experienced a 0.33% return in the second quarter of 2024, ending two years of cumulative losses. The low interest rate era has driven real estate values up, with global total returns reaching 5.0% in the fourth quarter of 2021 and 17.8% in the first quarter of 2022 – figures well above long-term averages. However, as interest rates began to rise, these gains were negated and values returned to 2018 levels globally.
But now, it seems that the real estate market correction is nearly complete, offering a ripe opportunity for investors to revisit this asset class. Historically, real estate has provided stable income returns and diversification benefits over the long term, and it has the potential to offer robust returns during recovery periods. For example, after the early 1990s recession, investors saw a 76% cumulative return over the next five years. The tech-wreck and the Global Financial Crisis also saw strong returns of 98% and 86%, respectively.
In the second quarter of 2024, global value losses moderated to 0.74%, marking the lowest quarterly adjustment in the past two years. With offsetting income returns of 1.07%, global real estate achieved a positive 0.33% return, the first positive quarter since 2Q2022. Among the 15 global markets in the MSCI Global Property Index, a slight majority saw write-ups in real estate values for the first time since 2Q2022. Eight markets, including Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Southern Europe, the Nordics, the Netherlands, France, and the UK experienced value increases from the prior quarter. Six markets saw value losses between 0.3% and 1.5%, all of which moderated from 1Q2024. Only Australia recorded a larger write-down in the second quarter than in the first, with a 4.2% correction aligning valuations more closely with its peers.
However, changes in capital values are just one component of real estate returns. Historically, the larger component of total returns has been income. This trend underscores the importance of income returns in driving overall performance in the real estate sector, highlighting the need for investors to consider both capital and income aspects when evaluating real estate investments.
As an international investor, it is crucial to be well-informed about the regulations and limitations surrounding property ownership in Singapore. Unlike landed properties, which have more stringent ownership guidelines, foreigners are generally able to purchase condominiums with minimal restrictions. However, it is important to note that foreign buyers are subject to the Additional Buyer’s Stamp Duty (ABSD), currently set at 20% for their initial property acquisition. Despite this additional expense, the stability and potential for growth in the Singapore real estate market continues to draw foreign investment. This is evident in the numerous Singapore Projects that continue to attract foreign investors.
In the second quarter, total returns, which combine capital and income returns, were positive in 12 of 15 countries. They were flat in the US (–0.09%), slightly negative in Ireland (–0.22%), and significantly negative in Australia (–3.07%). Preliminary NCREIF ODCE index (a capitalisation-weighted, gross-of-fee, time-weighted return index) data showed US total returns turning positive (0.25%). With values beginning to rebound, we expect the positive trajectory in total returns to continue.
Although fundraising for real estate investment shows signs of a potential rebound globally after two slow years, China and Japan could face challenges. In 3Q2024, China and Japan accounted for 27% and 15% of the US$7.5 billion ($10.04 billion) in cross-border inflows in Asia Pacific. Over half of Japan’s inflows were from global sources, while most of China’s came from within Asia Pacific, particularly Hong Kong and Singapore. Both countries face high debt costs and other factors hindering a strong rebound in real estate capital inflows.
In China, there has been a significant decline in interest from Western investors due to geopolitical and economic concerns. This trend is unlikely to change anytime soon, and the market has been stagnant due to price dislocation, geopolitical risks, and lack of liquidity. Since 2021, China has faced a property crisis worsened by the collapse of Evergrande. Many European investors are avoiding China and Hong Kong due to these risks, regardless of potential returns. In addition, the domestic property crisis in China persists, with high office vacancies, low rental yields, ongoing issues with failing developers, and government interventions.
Japan, on the other hand, remains an outlier with interest rate policies and limited cap rate compression making the broader Japanese property sector less appealing. In July, the Bank of Japan raised borrowing rates for the first time since 2007 to control inflation, reducing market attractiveness. This hike has prevented cap rate compression, which means that property prices haven’t risen, forcing real estate holders to rely on historically low-income yields. However, senior housing remains an attractive niche due to Japan’s aging population, with 29% of its population aged 65 or over. These assets are small and require an amalgamation play by investors.
Australia continues to be an attractive market, with its purpose-built student accommodation (PBSA) sector showing immense potential due to a significant housing shortage. Only 20% of students in Melbourne and Sydney can be accommodated by universities, forcing the rest to seek private rentals. Additionally, real estate debt in Australia offers appealing risk-adjusted returns, with funding gaps in construction that make it difficult for many developers to secure bank financing. Sectors such as logistics or PBSA present long-term growth opportunities.
Stabilizing valuations and transaction market pricing suggest that the real estate market is near its bottom, but these signals alone do not indicate an attractive entry point. For market pricing and valuations to increase, we would ideally see declining interest rates and strengthening property fundamentals. As developed market central banks begin to taper interest rates, we can expect downward pressure on financing rates, discount rates, and property capitalization rates, which would boost the value of real estate assets.
With a pullback in construction activity across sectors, the medium-term outlook for property fundamentals is encouraging. Markets with positive demand due to population growth or structural changes, such as e-commerce, are set to see increased occupancies in the medium term. Historically, occupancies and rent growth are well correlated, which provides investors with opportunities to gain from increased occupancies, rents, and the associated rise in property values.
While the outlook for global private real estate seems to be improving, the rising tide is unlikely to lift all boats. For instance, the US office market still faces significant challenges, and a broad recovery in that segment seems highly unlikely in the near term. This underscores the importance of research and selectivity when investing in real estate, as not all markets and property types will perform equally well.
In an uncertain economic and geopolitical environment, additional risks are inevitable, but this applies to all asset classes. Over the past two years, the weight of real estate in investors’ portfolios has significantly decreased due to resetting real estate values and a record stock market. Today, investors might consider fresh allocations to the private real estate market to achieve a strategic weighting. Over the long term, private real estate offers low correlations to other asset classes, strong income returns, and a degree of inflation-hedging. While there may be bumps in the road, we believe the market is beginning to look up, presenting excellent investment opportunities for savvy investors.…