on Nov 25, 2024?Record-breaking 1,000 HDB resale flats hit $1 mil in 2024
HDB’s flash estimates released on Jan 2 showed that prices of resale flats rose by 2.5% q-o-q in 4Q2024, a slightly slower pace compared to the 2.7% q-o-q growth in the previous quarter. This marks the 19th consecutive quarter in which prices have increased in the HDB resale market.
According to Christine Sun, chief researcher and strategist at OrangeTee Group, the flash estimates indicate that HDB resale prices grew by 9.6% in 2024, doubling the 4.9% growth recorded in the previous year. However, this growth rate is still less than the 10.4% increase in 2022 and the 12.7% growth in 2021.
The latest HDB caveat data from data.gov.sg, downloaded at 8.15am on Jan 2, reveals a slowdown in price growth for certain flat types, notes OrangeTee. For instance, the median price of four-room flats in 4Q2024 increased by 2.5% q-o-q, a slower pace compared to the 3.4% growth in 3Q2024.
Purchasing a condo requires careful consideration of the financing options available. In Singapore, various mortgage plans are offered, but it is crucial to understand the Total Debt Servicing Ratio (TDSR) framework. This framework serves as a limit on the amount of loan that a borrower can obtain, taking into account their income and current debt obligations. To make well-informed decisions about financing and avoid excessive borrowing, it is advisable to seek guidance from financial advisors or mortgage brokers. Furthermore, keeping up to date with New Condo Launches can also be beneficial in understanding the current market and making smart investments.
Similarly, prices for two-room flats rose by 2% q-o-q in 4Q2024, slower than the 3.9% growth in 3Q2024. Meanwhile, executive flats saw a 1.2% q-o-q price increase in 4Q2024, compared to 1.7% in the previous quarter.
In contrast, prices for five-room flats grew by 3.2% in 4Q2024, faster than the 1.2% increase in 3Q2024.
Resale volume down by 3.6% y-o-y in 4Q2024
HDB resale volume decreased by 3.6% y-o-y to 6,314 units in 4Q2024, down from 6,547 transactions in 4Q2023. It also saw a 22.5% q-o-q decrease from 8,142 units in 3Q2024.
Sun attributes the decline in HDB resale transactions to the launch of over 8,500 new flats in the October Build-to-Order (BTO) exercise, with a large number of units located in prime and desirable locations. She adds that the attractive features of these flats diverted demand away from the resale market towards the BTO market.
The seasonal year-end school holidays, when many Singaporeans tend to travel abroad, also slowed down sales. As a result, house viewings and sales activities typically decrease during this period.
However, according to Wong Siew Ying, head of research and content at PropNex, the slower growth in 4Q2024 can be attributed to the government’s intervention in August 2024, when the loan-to-value (LTV) limit for HDB loans was reduced by five percentage points to 75%. She adds that the August 2024 measures are likely to have an impact on the market, leading to weaker sales and slower growth in the HDB resale price index. The lower resale volume during the quarter is also likely to put a drag on prices, she adds.
Total resale volume in 2024 up by 8% y-o-y
Despite the decline in resale transactions in 4Q2024, the total resale volume for the year reached 28,876 units, an 8% increase from the 26,735 units recorded in the previous year and the 27,896 units in 2022. However, this figure is still lower than the peak of 31,017 units in 2021.
Decline in million-dollar flat transactions in 4Q2024
The decrease in resale transactions in 4Q2024 led to a drop in the number of million-dollar flat transactions, with only 283 units sold as compared to 331 units in 3Q2024. However, the total number of million-dollar transactions hit a record high of 1,033 units in 2024, more than double the 469 million-dollar transactions recorded in the previous year, says OrangeTee’s Sun.
Toa Payoh town topped the list of million-dollar resale flat deals in 4Q2024, with 58 transactions. Among these, 20 transactions involved four- and five-room units at Alkaff Vista in Bidadari Park Drive, which had recently completed the five-year minimum occupation period (MOP).
New classification of BTO flats and higher demand for central locations
Eugene Lim, key executive officer of ERA Singapore, suggests that the new classification of Plus and Prime BTO flats may have driven homebuyers to seek out HDB resale homes in central locations. He adds that these buyers are unwilling to accept the resale restrictions such as a 10-year MOP, rental restrictions after MOP, subsidy clawback upon resale, and resale income cap on future buyers.
OrangeTee expects HDB resale prices to continue rising in 2025, but at a slower rate than in previous years. The prices in many areas have already reached new highs, creating affordability concerns for potential buyers, Sun says.
She adds that the ongoing supply of BTO flats is expected to help moderate price growth in the secondary market. However, the level of price stabilisation will depend on the number of BTO flats the government plans to release in the upcoming years.
In February 2025, HDB is slated to launch its largest sale of balance flats (SBF) exercise, offering more than 5,500 units across various towns, says Lee Sze Teck, senior director of data analytics at Huttons Asia. He adds that some prospective resale flat buyers may have decided to wait to try their luck.
Price growth and transaction volume expected to moderate in 2025
According to Eugene Lim, resale prices are likely to grow at a more measured pace in 2025 due to a reduced supply of flats reaching the MOP, which has been a key driver of price growth in recent years. He expects resale prices to grow by 3% to 6%, with a projected 26,000 to 27,000 resale units changing hands by the end of 2025.
PropNex expects the HDB resale market to perform well in 2025, thanks to healthy housing demand and fewer MOP flats coming on the market. Wong Siew Ying says that resale flats will continue to attract strong buying interest from those with more pressing housing needs, applicants who cannot secure a BTO flat, and families with a tighter housing budget. She projects that HDB resale flat prices may rise by 5% to 7% in 2025, with a resale volume forecast of 29,000 to 30,000 units.
Reduced supply of BTO flats in 2025 leading to higher demand and lower interest rates
According to Huttons’ Lee, the supply of BTO flats in 2025 will be further reduced to 17,290 units, 12% lower than the supply in 2024. As there is no upfront information on the BTO projects with a shorter waiting time, buyers are likely to turn to the resale market, he reckons. Lower interest rates may also encourage buyers to take on a more significant loan amount to purchase a new home. He adds that buyers may also look for executive condos or resale condos, while the number of million-dollar flat transactions may stabilise in the range of 900 to 1,200 units in 2025.
Huttons expects that HDB resale flat transactions will end the year at 26,000 to 28,000, with resale flat prices projected to grow at a slower pace of 5% to 8%.…